The upcoming monthly options expiry for Bitcoin (BTC) on June 30, with a value of $4.7 billion, is expected to have a significant influence on the cryptocurrency’s price. This event could determine whether the $30,000 level will consolidate as long-term support and potentially pave the way for further bullish momentum.
Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $27,000 to the anticipation surrounding multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) requests, including those from BlackRock and ARK Invest. The market also awaits Grayscale’s potential conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF, adding to the optimism. However, concerns arise from regulatory hurdles and macroeconomic headwinds that could favor Bitcoin bears.
Of particular concern is the sell pressure from miners, as evidenced by the all-time high in BTC revenue percentage sent to exchanges, totaling $128 million over the past week. This movement echoes patterns observed during the 2021 bull run when miners capitalized on profits. Furthermore, statements made by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell indicating the likelihood of two more interest rate hikes this year contribute to the prevailing uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s price flirted with the $31,000 resistance level on June 27 but faced stronger resistance than anticipated, leading to a subsequent correction to $30,000. This correction supports the notion of sideways trading in the short term as investors assess the impact of potential interest rate hikes by the Fed.
The open interest for the June 30 options expiry stands at $4.7 billion. However, the actual figure is expected to be lower because bullish traders were overly optimistic, hoping for price levels of $32,000 or higher. As a result, the put-to-call ratio of 0.56 reflects an imbalance in open interest, with $3.1 million in call options and $1.7 million in put options.
Four likely scenarios
Four likely scenarios are projected based on the current price action. In the range of $28,000 to $29,000, bears hold control with 16,200 puts versus 7,200 calls, yielding a potential profit of $250 million. Between $29,000 and $30,000, the options are more balanced, with 13,000 calls and 12,600 puts. The range of $30,000 to $31,000 favors call options, with 1,500 calls versus 2,100 puts, resulting in a net favorability of $440 million. Lastly, between $31,000 and $32,000, there are 3,300 calls against 800 puts, favoring call options by $670 million.
While this estimation oversimplifies the market dynamics, as it does not account for more complex investment strategies, it provides a glimpse into the potential outcomes. Ultimately, the BTC price will depend on the risk appetite of bears in the face of a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval being analyzed by the SEC. Bulls seek to secure a short-term profit of $440 million by maintaining the Bitcoin price above $30,000.
Disclaimer: This article serves as general information and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The author’s views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of Cointelegraph.