Bitcoin price has remained stagnant for several days, prompting the question of why it is not moving. Despite a minor dip of over 1% to around $30,350 on July 5, the overall price action has been flat within the range of $31,400 and $29,500. This consolidation period follows a significant 27% rally from its June low of approximately $24,750, suggesting reduced urgency among traders to buy or sell BTC in the short term.
One contributing factor to the lack of movement is the daily relative strength index (RSI), which has approached the “overbought” threshold of 70. An overbought RSI often leads to sideways consolidation or a correction in price. Additionally, market participants have been assessing the possibility of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the region, while also considering the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
From a technical standpoint
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin seems well-positioned to continue its upward trend into Q3, despite minor intraday losses. The ongoing consolidation phase has formed what appears to be an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. Confirmation of this pattern would occur if BTC/USD breaks above the upper trendline, potentially resulting in a rally towards $37,000 by July or August, marking an 18.5% increase from current levels.
On-chain indicators also support a positive BTC price scenario. The long-term holders’ market-value-to-relative-value (MVRV) ratio, which had entered undervalued territory, is now recovering. Similar recoveries in the past have preceded bull cycles, suggesting the potential for further gains. However, failure to break decisively above the $31,500 resistance level may lead to a test of the lower range at $25,000-26,500 in the coming weeks. This range aligns with Bitcoin’s 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Investing and trading in cryptocurrencies carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.