The hope for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has waned as on-chain and futures data reveal muted activity among traders. Despite a 25.5% rally in mid-June that pushed Bitcoin to its highest level in over a year, the cryptocurrency’s inability to sustain prices above $31,000 and neutral indicators in on-chain and derivatives metrics do not support the optimism expected from investors.
The recent price stagnation, which has kept Bitcoin trading between $29,900 and $31,160 for the past 18 days, is concerning as it follows the news of BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, applying for a Bitcoin ETF. This development had fueled expectations of a Bitcoin price surge, with some analysts predicting a value of $100,000 by year-end. However, regulatory actions against major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, combined with positive triggers, have created negative price pressure.
Analyzing Blockchain Data
Analyzing blockchain data reveals that there hasn’t been a significant improvement in Bitcoin’s on-chain activity. The number of active addresses has failed to surpass one million, reaching levels similar to three months ago. Moreover, there has been no notable increase in the number of large Bitcoin holders during this period. These on-chain metrics suggest that the launch of an ETF has not yet triggered a bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Derivatives Data
Bitcoin derivatives data also paints a cautious picture. While Bitcoin futures premiums briefly crossed the neutral threshold after breaching the $30,000 support level, the options markets show a lack of confidence from professional traders. The 25% delta skew, which indicates the demand for upside or downside protection, failed to sustain levels below the neutral threshold for an extended period. This balanced demand suggests a lack of optimism among traders.
The disappointing findings in both on-chain and derivatives data are in contrast to the recent price rally above $30,000. Despite expectations of a bullish trend, influenced by Bitcoin’s low valuation compared to its all-time high and impending court rulings against exchanges, the data does not support sustained price gains.
It is important to note that this article provides general information and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The author’s views expressed here are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.