In this episode of The Market Report, Marcel Pechman discusses the possibility of a pre-halving rally in Bitcoin and its potential implications for investors. While Standard Chartered bank predicts a $120,000 Bitcoin price based on the halving impact, Pechman challenges this thesis by highlighting the increasing mining difficulty and recent investments in new ASIC equipment.
Pechman expresses skepticism regarding a $50,000 year-end Bitcoin price prediction due to low odds of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by then. However, if an ETF is approved within the next six months, a substantial inflow of around $5 billion could drive Bitcoin’s price above $70,000. Looking ahead to 2024, Pechman raises the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval to 30%, aligning with Bloomberg analysts’ expectations of a 50% chance. Considering the influence of industry giants like BlackRock and Fidelity, Pechman suggests that a $10 billion inflow in the initial months following the ETF launch is feasible, implying that Standard Chartered’s conservative estimate of $120,000 might be plausible.
Pechman speculates that the expectation of an ETF approval could impact the pre-halving rally. He advises against succumbing to the fear of missing out (FOMO) and suggests either waiting for an entry point or employing dollar cost averaging. Moreover, Pechman examines Glassnode’s on-chain analysis report on re-accumulation at $30,000, emphasizing that the concept of ‘return to mean’ holds significance not only in traditional markets but also in the cryptocurrency domain. When investors lack conviction, they tend to refer to previous average levels.
To gain more insights into Pechman’s strategy for the Bitcoin halving and the potential impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, listeners are encouraged to tune in to The Market Report, available exclusively on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.